The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday — just a day after a ceasefire deal in Gaza that many analysts believe came too late to bolster US President Donald Trump’s long-running desire to claim the prestigious award.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is set to unveil the winner of the 2025 Peace Prize at 11:00 a.m. local time (0900 GMT or 2:00 p.m. Pakistan time) in Oslo. The announcement follows Thursday’s breakthrough ceasefire and captive release agreement between Israel and Hamas — a deal that could finally halt more than two years of devastating conflict in Gaza.
While Trump’s administration played a role in pushing the rival sides toward the truce, experts say the timing works against him. The Nobel Committee held its final meeting on Monday and had already finalized its choice, making the Gaza deal irrelevant to this year’s decision.
“The Gaza deal has absolutely no significance for the choice of the 2025 laureate because the Nobel Committee has already made its decision,” Norwegian historian and Peace Prize expert Asle Sveen told AFP. “Trump will not win the prize this year. I’m 100 percent certain.”
Trump’s Quest for Recognition
President Trump, who returned to the White House for his second term in January, has repeatedly insisted he deserves the Peace Prize for his diplomatic efforts. Speaking to AFP on Thursday, he claimed credit for resolving multiple global conflicts.
“I don’t know what they’re going to do, really. But I know this — nobody in history has solved eight wars in a period of nine months,” Trump said. “And I’ve stopped eight wars. That’s never happened before,” he added, describing Gaza as “the biggest of them all.”
However, analysts in Oslo say Trump’s “America First” approach runs counter to the values enshrined in Alfred Nobel’s 1895 will, which emphasizes global cooperation and disarmament. Historian Sveen noted that Trump had long given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “free rein” in Gaza and supplied significant military aid to Israel, undermining his peace credentials.
Pakistan’s Unusual Nomination
Earlier this year, Pakistan’s government announced it would formally nominate Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, citing his “decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership” in defusing tensions between India and Pakistan.
The crisis began when New Delhi blamed Islamabad for the April 22 Pahalgam attack in occupied Kashmir and carried out airstrikes in Pakistan. Islamabad retaliated, but a ceasefire soon followed. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif later defended the nomination, saying Trump “helped save the region from destruction” and prevented a “bad nuclear war.”
No Clear Favourite for 2025 Prize
This year’s Nobel Peace Prize field remains wide open, with 338 individuals and organizations nominated. The list remains sealed for 50 years, but speculation in Oslo suggests a diverse range of possible recipients — from humanitarian groups to political figures.
Among those mentioned are Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a network of volunteers aiding civilians amid war and famine; Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny; and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, a body that monitors elections worldwide.
The committee could also opt for a choice that underscores its independence from American influence — such as UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), or UNRWA, the Palestinian relief agency. International legal institutions like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or International Criminal Court (ICC) have also been floated as potential honorees.
In an era of rising global tensions, others believe the Nobel Committee might turn toward defenders of press freedom, such as the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders.
Nobel Committee Confirms There Will Be a Winner
Despite speculation that no prize might be awarded this year due to the grim global situation, the Nobel Institute dismissed such rumours. “There will be a laureate this year,” spokesman Erik Aasheim confirmed to AFP. Last year’s Peace Prize went to Nihon Hidankyo, an organization of survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings who campaign against nuclear weapons.
The Nobel Peace Prize includes a diploma, a gold medal, and a $1.2 million cash award. Following this week’s prizes for medicine, physics, chemistry, literature, and peace, the Nobel season will conclude Monday with the economics award.
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