Torrential monsoon rains and cloudbursts have unleashed catastrophic flooding across Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir, Indian Punjab, and Pakistan, leaving hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands displaced. Beyond the humanitarian toll, the unfolding disaster has once again underscored the deep geopolitical tensions tied to water management and transboundary rivers in South Asia.
In Kashmir, the situation has been especially grim. In Kishtwar district, a flash flood triggered by a mid-August cloudburst swept through the Machail Mata pilgrimage route, killing at least 67 people, injuring over 300, and leaving nearly 200 missing. Landslides near the Vaishno Devi shrine added to the tragedy, with 30 more fatalities reported. Authorities have issued flood and landslide warnings across the valley, as the Jhelum River and Sheshnag Nallah surged to record levels. Analysts warn that unchecked construction and deforestation in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem have magnified the intensity of the floods, raising urgent questions about disaster preparedness in a conflict-torn region.
In Indian Punjab, the flood situation is less severe in terms of casualties, yet the risks remain high. Swollen rivers, particularly the Sutlej and Ravi, continue to carry excess water downstream, threatening both agriculture and settlements. The state’s vulnerability is closely tied to cross-border hydropolitics, as the release of dam waters from Indian reservoirs has a direct impact on flood risks in Pakistan.
Across the border, Pakistan has been placed on an “exceptionally high” flood alert after India released surplus water from its dams into the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab rivers. Although the move falls within India’s rights under the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, it has triggered unease in Islamabad, where officials accuse New Delhi of using water flows as leverage during monsoon extremes. In eastern Punjab alone, more than 150,000 people have been evacuated, with Kasur and Bahawalnagar among the hardest-hit districts. Floodwaters have destroyed cropland, mango orchards, and homes, reviving painful memories of the 2022 catastrophe that submerged a third of Pakistan. Nationwide, over 800 people have died since June in flood-related disasters.
The northwest of Pakistan has also been devastated. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, flash floods and landslides have killed more than 320 people in August alone, including 158 in Buner district. A rescue helicopter crash that killed five crew members has further hampered relief operations. Across KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, nearly 650 people have died, with thousands more stranded in isolated valleys cut off by collapsed bridges and blocked roads.
This year’s floods once again highlight the geopolitical fragility of South Asia’s shared river systems. While India’s dam releases are meant to prevent disasters at home, they have cascading consequences downstream in Pakistan. Though legally permitted, such unilateral actions fuel mistrust between the two rivals, who already spar over water allocation and dam construction. Experts caution that with climate change intensifying extreme weather events, the frequency of such disputes will only grow. “South Asia’s water security is not just an environmental issue but a geopolitical one,” noted one analyst. “When upstream releases trigger downstream disasters, it feeds nationalist narratives on both sides of the border.”
With over 60,000 lives lost to floods in Pakistan since 1947 and recurrent devastation in both Kashmir and Punjab, the crisis underscores the urgent need for cross-border disaster coordination. Yet, in an atmosphere of mistrust and unresolved territorial disputes, meaningful cooperation remains unlikely. For millions displaced across Indian Kashmir, Indian Punjab, and Pakistan, survival now depends less on geopolitics and more on immediate relief food, shelter, and medicine. But as the waters recede, the political currents of water-sharing, climate adaptation, and territorial rivalries are certain to surge once again across South Asia.
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