Israel’s strikes on Hamas leaders in Qatar have raised fears that Turkey could be the group’s next target, with analysts warning Ankara may no longer be immune from military escalation in the region.
According to experts, Turkey is viewed as Hamas’s last major refuge after Qatar’s long-standing reputation as a safe haven was shattered by recent Israeli airstrikes. Analysts argue that Ankara now faces mounting pressure to either expel Hamas leaders or strictly regulate their presence by relocating them away from densely populated areas to minimize the risk of Israeli targeting.
Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, stressed that Turkey’s NATO membership may not protect it if Israel chooses to escalate. He argued that Israel could justify strikes as legitimate self-defense against a state “facilitating terrorism,” thereby framing Ankara as a direct enabler of militant activities.
Rubin also noted that NATO’s Article 5 — the collective defense clause that treats an attack on one member as an attack on all — does not apply automatically. Its activation requires consensus, which could face obstacles given current tensions between Turkey and several allies, including the United States, Sweden, and Finland. This means Ankara cannot rely on NATO’s security umbrella if Israel takes military action.
The developments underscore a growing strategic dilemma for Turkey. While it has historically maintained ties with Hamas as part of its broader regional policy, Israel’s willingness to strike beyond Gaza — as seen in Qatar — signals that no location is considered off-limits. The future of Hamas’s leadership remains uncertain, with Ankara now under the spotlight as Israel pursues its campaign against the group’s global networks.
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