The steady expansion of Israel’s military footprint in Syria’s Al-Quneitra province — and beyond — should alarm anyone watching the region. This is no minor security measure. Since late 2024, Israel has been operating a self-declared buffer zone along the Syrian-Lebanese border, complete with strategic assets like its Mount Hermon base. It’s a foothold that could serve as the perfect springboard for a broader regional offensive.
Israeli raids deep into Syrian provinces such as Daraa and Rif Damascus, often without any meaningful pushback from Damascus — show that this buffer zone is not just about defense. These incursions, often short-term “hit-and-withdraw” missions, fit neatly into Israel’s long-term playbook of shaping the battlefield beyond its borders.
And now, with Lebanon back in the crosshairs amid talk of disarming Hezbollah, the possibility of an Israeli invasion from Syrian soil is no longer far-fetched. Israel attempted similar moves from the Golan Heights during the 2024 war. This time, its expanded Syrian presence makes the scenario more operationally feasible than ever.
The political incentives are also clear. The Netanyahu government faces mounting domestic fatigue over the war in Gaza. A fresh front in Lebanon could rally public opinion, distract from internal discontent, and project an image of regional dominance. But such a gamble would risk igniting a conflict far more dangerous than anything seen in recent years, potentially drawing in the entire Axis of Resistance and setting the region ablaze.
If Israel chooses this path, it won’t just be another war with Hezbollah. It will be a calculated reshaping of the regional map — one where Syrian territory becomes the launchpad for a wider, bloodier conflict. The international community should be paying close attention, because the first moves on this chessboard may have already been made.
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